Business area outlook for Q2 2023 as provided in the Q1 2023 presentation:
Bauxite & Alumina
- Alunorte production around nameplate capacity
- Lower caustic and energy costs
- Higher fixed costs
Aluminium Metal
- ~69% of primary production for Q2 2023 priced at USD 2 287 per mt
- ~53% of premiums affecting Q2 2023 booked at USD ~513 per mt
o Q2 realized premium expected in the range of USD 425-475 per ton - Higher sales volumn
- Lower raw material costs
- Lower result on power sales
Metal Markets
- Volatile trading and currency effects
- Lower recycling margins
- Higher recycling volumes
Extrusions
- Continued strong margins
- Market uncertainty, and softening extrusions markets
- Lower recycling margins
- Negative metal effects
Energy
- Balanced hydrology in the Nordics
- Lower expected NO2-NO3 spread compared Q1
- Reduced loss on Aluminium Metal buy-back contract vs first quarter
- Volume and price uncertainty
Additional information
- The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q1 Investor presentation.
Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q2
- The average LME 3M market rate in Q2-23 was USD/t 2 283 vs 2 439 in Q1-23
o Realized price in AM lags LME market rate with 1-2 months. - The average spot PAX alumina price in Q2-23 was USD/t 344 vs 360 in Q1-23
o Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag. - The average USD/NOK market rate in Q2-23 was 10.71 vs 10.24 in Q1-23
- The average USD/BRL market rate in Q2-23 was 4.94 vs 5.20 in Q1-23
- The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q2-23 was NOK/MWh 958 vs 1 182 in Q1-23
- The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q2-23 was NOK/MWh 883 vs 1 177 in Q1-23
- The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q2-23 was NOK/MWh 415 vs 612 in Q1-23
Updated: July 05, 2023